Market Closes - August 25, 2014

Posted on Aug 26, 2014
Today’s big market move was the collapse in September soybean and meal futures, but September futures remain at very large premiums to the new-crop contracts’ prices. The new-crop futures were weighed down by the sharp losses. November soybeans fell to a new contract low. December soybean meal worked back toward the bottom part of the 7-week trading range; $340 is key support in December meal. Favorable weather the past week and forecasts for continued good rainfall are weighing on CBOT futures as yields are probably getting bigger.

ProFarmer published its yield estimates last Friday. They reportedly put corn at 169.3 bu/ac versus USDA at 167.4 bu/acre. Production of 14.093 vs 14.032 billion bushels from USDA. In soybeans, PF had 45.35 bu/ac compared to USDA’s 45.4 bu/acre; production totals are nearly equal at 3.812 vs 3.816 billion bushels.

Cattle futures closed higher in follow-through to last Friday’s rally. Traders will be looking for direction from the cash markets. In boxed beef, Choice down 0.08 at 249.69; Select carcasses down 0.59 at 239.07.

Last Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report put August 1st On-Feed INVENTORY at 9.837 million head, down 1.9 pct from a year earlier. The estimate compared to trade expectations of -2.5 pct. Marketings at 90.7 pct was smaller than the 92.5 pct expectation and the SMALLEST JULY MARKETINGS since the data series began in 1996. Likewise, JULY PLACEMENTS were the smallest since 1996, but were more than expected.

Lean Hog futures did close higher on short-covering even though pork values were weak again today. FOB Plant Pork cutout dropped .92 to 102.68/cwt. The trend in futures remains down.

Corn Sep -5 360; Dec -4 367; Dec’15 -2 409 Bean Sep -40 1126; Nov -13 1029; Nov’15 -8 1039 Meal Sep -27 406; Dec -9 344 Oil +38 3274 Wheat Sep -9 542; Dec -8 554; Jly -4 592 KC -11 623; MGE -10 617 Oats -7 377 Rice +14 1297

LC Aug +90 15275; Oct +115 14815; Apr +145 15195 FC Aug +130 21740; Sep +237 21327; Mar +200 20650 LH Oct +57 9345; Dec +85 8800; Feb +97 8750 Milk Sep +22 2375; Oct +30 2274

US$ +.25%

Dow +76 17077 SP +10 1998 Surpassed 2000 for the first time ever. NAS +19 4557 Tran +24 8454 VIX +.23 11.70

WTI -28 9337 Brent +42 10271 Gas +1 275 NG +10 394 HO +1 284 Eth -2 215 Gold -3 1277 Slvr -7 1931

2-yr +.012 0.504% 5-yr +.009 1.670% 10yr -.017 2.386% 30yr -.024 3.133%

Corn Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 73% 7% Last Week 72% 8% Last year 59% 14%

In DENT stage: 35% vs 43% average

Soybean Conditions – 18 States . Good/Excellent Poor/V.Poor This Week 70% 7% Last Week 71% 6% Last year 58% 13%

Setting Pods: 90% vs 89% average

SPRING Wheat Harvested – 6 States 27% this week versus 39% last year and 49% for 5-year average.

U.S. Pasture: 48% good/excellent vs 48% last week and 41% year ago. 20% poor/v.poor vs 20% last week and 31% year ago.

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 08/25/2014 Receipts: 665 Last Monday: 730 Year Ago: 1185 Compared to last week steer and heifer calves sold steady to 3.00 lower in a light test with moderate demand on an plain to good quality offering. Yearling steers and heifers lightly tested. Bull calves sold 2.00 to 5.00 lower with light to moderate demand. Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand. Hot and very humid conditions slowing cattle movement yesterday and today and softened demand for fleshy new crop calves. Total supply included 08% slaughter cows, 02% slaughter bulls, 01% replacements and 89% feeders. Feeder supply 31% steers, 21% bulls, 48% heifers with 43% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

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Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates