CBOT soybean and soybean meal futures maintained their strong performance all day to close sharply higher.   Support came from unfavorable forecasts for weather over the next 1-2 weeks that will keep yields from reaching their potential.  Tonight’s 6-14 day NWS Maps indicate the next 2 weeks will see above-normal temperatures with moisture favoring the eastern Corn Belt.   See Maps here.  Soybean futures traded up to the highs posted earlier this summer.  See November Soybean Chart here.

Corn futures closed higher, recovering some of Thursday’s large losses.  Support came from the soybean pit, the weather outlook, and strong cash corn basis in many areas. News reports this week discussed how barges of corn harvested in the South are moving north to meet old-crop demand. The northern corn crop is behind in maturity, so harvest will be later than normal.

The ProFarmer Crop Tour made the following estimates: Corn, 154.1 bu/acre, 13.46 billion bushels; Soybean, 41.8 bu/acre, 3.158 billion bushels.   This compares to the last USDA report of 154.4 bu/acre, 13.76 billion bushels for Corn and 42.6 bu/acre, 3.255 billion for Soybeans.

CBOT Wheat futures managed gains today in sympathy with Corn futures, but the trend is still down for wheat futures. The MGEX spring wheat contract made a new low today.

Just a reminder that the large speculative funds have significant positions on the SHORT side of Corn and Wheat and on the LONG side of Soybean futures.

Cattle futures closed lower ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report.  The report found July placements to be well short of expectations resulting in an August 1 inventory down six percent instead of down four percent from a year ago. This may support Live Cattle futures on Monday.  In boxed beef, Choice carcasses were up 0.35 at 196.19, and Select carcasses were down 1.19 at 184.09/cwt.   See the Cattle on Feed report below.

Lean Hog futures closed higher after two days of lower prices. The pork cutout has been recovering some of its recent losses also. The FOB Plant Pork Cutout increased 0.93 to $100.56/cwt.  However, the seasonal trend for lower cash hog prices could limit gains in the nearby October LH contract which is at a significant discount to cash.

Although the US dollar was little changed, the energy and precious metal markets closed sharply higher.  Conversely, Treasury yields fell sharply after it was reported that new home sales fell much more than expected in July after mortgage rates had risen.

Corn Sep +8 495.5; Dec +5.5 470; Jly +5 496

Bean Sep +43 1365; Nov +41 1328; Jly +29 1275 Meal Sep +20 433; Dec +19 419 Oil +21 4264

Wheat Sep +4 634; Dec +5 646; JLY +5 660 KC +1 695; MGE -3 716

Oats Sep -19 363; Dec -1 331

Rice +17 1577

LC Aug -25 12310; Oct -50 12670; Feb -35 13072 FC Aug -45 15500; Sep -105 15665; Jan -77 15820 LH Oct +70 8510; Dec +65 8225; Feb +57 8450 Milk Aug -1 1790; Sep +25 1728

US$ -.15%

Dow +47 15011 SP +7 1663 NAS +19 3658 Tran +7 6480

WTI +139 10642 Brent +120 11110 Gas +4 301 NG -6 348 HO +2.5 309.5 Eth +14 244

Gold +25 1396 Slvr +70 2374

2-yr -.02 0.38% 5-yr -.06 1.62% 10yr -.07 2.81% 30yr -.08 3.80%

United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.0 million head on August 1, 2013. The inventory was 6 percent below August 1, 2012.

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.72 million, 10 percent below 2012. Net placements were 1.66 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 390,000, 600-699 pounds were 275,000, 700-799 pounds were 455,000, and 800 pounds and greater were 602,000.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 2.00 million, 5 percent above 2012.

Other disappearance totaled 64,000 during July, 2 percent above 2012. KY Dept of Ag Market News Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for August 16-22, 2013

Receipts This Week   Last Week   Last Year 23,064      20,949      20,815

Compared to last week:  Steer calves sold 3.00-5.00 higher; Heifer calves 1.00-3.00 higher.  Feeder Steers 1.00-3.00 higher; Feeder Heifers steady to 2.00 higher.  Demand good for steers; moderate to good for heifers.  Grain prices remain under pressure while the beef complex has seen favorable price trends as the final push for holiday grilling is under way.  This week's session began with an ideo/Internet sale at Bluegrass Stockyards in Lexington which offered over 10,000 head of cattle from Kentucky and surrounding states.  In step with current price trends the sale was a great success and included many reputation calf crops for Fall delivery and reputation Feeders for nearby delivery.  While the sale was good from opening to close an impressive sale of 165 steers 935 lbs for current delivery brought $150.50/cwt standing in Virginia was certainly noteworthy.   Slaughter Cows and Bulls leveled off this week and sold mostly steady.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 9 percent; Slaughter Bulls 3 percent; Feeder cattle 86 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 41 percent and Heifers approximately 37 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 55 percent.  Replacement cattle 2 percent.

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