Market Closes - August 1, 2016

Posted on Aug 1, 2016

With plentiful soil moisture and forecasts for timely rainfall the next 2 weeks, traders and spec funds aggressively sold corn and soy complex futures. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day NWS outlooks indicate rainfall will be above normal through nearly all corn/bean producing areas. Today’s crop condition ratings are steady with last week.

September Corn fell to a new contract low, while December Corn closed just above the contract low of 3.33 set on July 22. To find chart support, one can look at the monthly continuation chart. The October 2014 low of $3.1825 is one support, followed by $2.97 from 2009.

November Soybeans traded to a new low for this summer’s downtrend. The 200-day moving average support is at $9.55. Below that price, support is difficult to identify above $9.00. If that support breaks, then we could be looking at 8.70, 8.60 and the contract low of $8.50 set last September.

Tomorrow’s markets could be pressured by a private production estimate reportedly at 15.15 billion bushels of corn on a yield of 175 bu/acre and 4.05 billion soybeans and a 48.8 bu/acre yield.

Week ending July 31
U.S. Corn Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      76%         6%
Last Week      76%         5%
Last year      70%         9%

U.S. Soybean Conditions
.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      72%         7%
Last Week      71%         7%
Last year      63%        11%

U.S. Pasture and Range
51% good/excellent vs 58% year ago.
17% poor/v.poor vs 12% year ago.

Cattle futures soared higher with nearby Feeder Cattle contracts closing limit up. Futures were supported by aggressive short-covering after cash cattle traded $118/cwt, up $3.00 from a week earlier. Further gains in cash prices and the LC futures market may depend on strength in the boxed beef market, which didn’t show up today. Choice gained .13 to 197.70 and Select ended .62 higher at 190.22.

Except for losses in the August LH contract, Lean Hog futures closed strongly higher on short-covering amid the sharp cattle futures rally. New contract lows were made last Friday. FOB Plant Pork gained .08 to 79.47; bellies gained 5% while ribs fell about 2% and hams 3%.


Bayer Loses Insecticide Appeal
Bayer Required to Pull Belt SC Insecticide From Market  (DTN)


Corn Sep -9 326; Dec -8 334 (334-42)

Bean Sep -39 981; Nov -41 961 (958-1000)

  Meal -16 334

  Oil -61 2987

Wheat Sep -2 406; Dec -3 433; Jly -1 480

  KC unch 409;  MGE -3 485

Oats -1 200

Rice -25 968

LC Aug +285 11592; Dec +220 11460; Feb +215 11395

FC Aug +450 limit 14455; Oct +415 14187; Jan +405 13582

LH Aug -32 6865; Oct +155 6060; Dec +175 5650

 

US$ +.3%

Dow -28 18405

SP -3 2171 (traded to a new all-time high today)

NAS +22 5184

Tran -31 7816

  VIX +.57 12.44

 

WTI -152 4008

Brent -131 4222

Gas -1 131

NG -10 277

HO -5 126

Eth -2 140

Gold +2 1360

Slvr +15 2050

 

2-yr +.016 0.683%

5-yr +.029 1.062%

10yr +.050 1.508%

30yr +.065 2.247%

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for the week of Jul 25-30, 2016.
Receipts
This Week     Last Week    Last Year
  11,641       11,361       10,252
   Compared to last week, steer calves sold mostly steady to 3.00 higher and heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher with light to moderate supply.  Yearling steers and heifers were mostly 1.00 to 3.00 higher with light supply. There was good demand for all feeder classes.  Quality was average through good.  Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 3.00 higher with moderate to good demand.  Extreme heat continues to affect livestock movement throughout the state.

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