CBOT corn and soybean futures closed lower again today as the weather forecast is favorable and the “big money” funds are adding to their short corn futures position and liquidating their big long in soybean futures.  This is a weather and money market for now and neither is bullish.

NOVEMBER SOYBEANS broke key chart support at $11.865 today – this price should act as resistance now.

Private production estimates are making their way to the market, followed by USDA’s official estimate on August 12 at 11 am CDT.  Make your marketing plan current by then.

Wheat futures have separated from the corn market as harvest winds down and export demand shows some promise.

LIVE CATTLE futures closed lower as traders lose patience with the cash cattle market. The latest CFTC report showed the Spec Funds reducing their long position.  Boxed beef prices were mixed today -- Choice up 0.55 at 187.21; Select down 0.63 at 180.90/cwt.   Feeder Cattle futures were little changed, supported by falling corn futures.

In LEAN HOG futures, the action was in the nearby AUGUST LH contract as it reacts to the surprising strength in pork values. Today, FOB Plant Pork closed up 1.50 to $104.02/cwt.  The CME Lean Hog Cash Index is also at a premium to August futures.  However, October LH futures are at a significant discount to August, as seasonally cash hog prices should turn lower as slaughter rates rise.

Corn Sep -11.5 476; Dec -3 464 (462-470); Jly -3 490 Bean Aug -27 1331; Sep -21.5 1213; Nov -11 1181 (1176-1208) Meal Sep -12.5 385; Dec -5 354 Oil -11 4249

Wheat Sep +2 660; Dec +2 673; JLY -1 682 KC unch 707; MGE -1 741 Oats -1 339 Rice -5 1580

LC Aug -15 12065; Dec -35 12700; Feb -10 12890 FC Aug -2 15372; Oct -12 15915; Jan -10 15872 LH Aug +82 9925; Oct +5 8395; Feb +10 8332 Milk Aug +7 1789; Sep -10 1842

US$ -.5% Dow +30 15658 SP +3 1710 NAS +14 3690 Tran -18 6652 VIX -.96 11.98 (-7.4%)

WTI -95 10694 Brent -63 10891 Gas -3 299 NG -4 335 HO -2.5 307 Eth unch 229

Gold -1 1310 Slvr +29 1991

2-yr -.05 0.30% 5-yr -.13 1.36% 10yr -.09 2.63% 30yr -.08 3.69% A disappointing jobs report this morning reversed yesterday’s move in Treasury rates and limited gains in US equities. Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for 26 July through 1 August 2013 Receipts This Week   Last Week  Last Year 20,175      17,702     12,277

Compared to Last Week:  Steer calves 3.00-5.00 higher; Feeder Steers 1.00-3.00 higher.  Feeder Heifers and Heifer calves mostly steady to 3.00 higher.  Demand good to very good on all classes.  Continued favorable weather conditions in much of the corn belt continues to erode the corn market, which in turn has been supportive to higher cattle prices coast to coast.  Local weather has been tough for putting up dry hay but Great for pastures which has been supportive to grazing conditions and local demand.  Slaughter Cows and Bulls mostly steady.

Supply:  Slaughter Cows 6 percent; Slaughter Bulls 2 percent; Feeder cattle 90 percent.  In the feeder supply, Steers made up approximately 45 percent and Heifers approximately 37 percent.  Steers and Heifers over 600 lbs totaled approximately 60 percent.  Replacement cattle 2 percent.

 

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