Market Closes - August 13, 2018

Posted on Aug 13, 2018

Corn Sep -1 356; Dec -1 370 (366-72)

Bean Sep +6 857; Nov +7 869 (851-70)

  Meal +6 327

  Oil +26 2836

Wheat Sep -13 533; Jly -9 581 (579-95)

   KC -19 541; MGE -16 593

Oats +1 258

Rice -24 1030

 

LC Aug -105 10720; Dec -110 11200; Feb -62 11575

FC Aug -125 14865; Oct -52 14895; Jan -50 14815

LH Aug +72 5552; Oct +47 5165; Dec +110 4857

Milk Aug -2 1502; Sep -11 1602

 

CBOT futures traded wide ranges today with the lows generally set overnight in following selling from Friday’s bearish USDA crop report. However, when trading resumed at 830 am CT, traders started buying and this lifted corn and soybeans to their highs late in the session; the closes were near those highs. Wheat futures tried to rally but failed – ending near the day’s lows. Soybeans closed higher on apparent heavy fund buying, reducing their short position. The specs also were also reported to be selling wheat futures, reducing their large long positions. Both of these actions seem somewhat in conflict with the underlying fundamentals.

Crop maturity remains ahead of normal and crop condition ratings dipped on one point in the good/excellent grouping.

Week ending Aug 12
U.S. Corn Conditions

.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      70%         10%
Last Week      71%         10%
Last year      62%         12%
  ** 73% in Dough vs 56% average
  ** 26% Dented vs 13% average

U.S. Soybean Conditions
.      Good/Excellent  Poor/V.Poor
This Week      66%         10%
Last Week      67%         10%
Last year      59%         12%
  ** 84% setting pods vs 72% average

U.S. Pasture and Range
40% good/excellent vs 47% year ago.
30% poor/v.poor vs 22% year ago.


LC Aug -105 10720; Dec -110 11200; Feb -62 11575

FC Aug -125 14865; Oct -52 14895; Jan -50 14815

LH Aug +72 5552; Oct +47 5165; Dec +110 4857

 

Cattle futures closed lower.  LC and FC gapped down on the open and never traded on the positive side. Today’s selling resulted from Friday’s disappointing cash trade around $109-110 and the USDA WASDE report that shows beef production rising from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter.  Limiting losses was stronger boxed beef values. Choice beef jumped 1.82 to 208.43 and Select gained 1.89 to 199.66, even better than the midday quotes.  The Ch/Sel spread is 8.77.  YTD beef production is up 3.2 pct over the same period in 2017.

Lean Hog futures closed higher but way below the day’s highs. Buying was in follow-through to last week’s price stability and bounce. The midday strength in pork didn’t last to the end of the day. FOB Plant Pork dropped .06 to 71.01, compared to a gain of 1.14 at midday. This rally doesn’t change fact that pork supplies are large – last week’s production was up 2.0 pct over year ago. YTD pork production is up 3.2 pct over the same period in 2017.

 

US$ steady

Dow -125 25188

SP -11 2822

NAS -19 7820

Tran -70 11021

  VIX +1.62 14.78

 

WTI -43 6720  low of 6571

Brent +1 7282

Gas -2 201

NG -1 293

HO unch 214

Eth unch 135

Gold -20 1199

Slvr -31 1498

2-yr +.012 2.612%

5-yr +.015 2.746%

10yr +.018 2.877%

30yr +.028 3.045%

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