Corn Sep +11 567; Dec +14 573 (551-94); Dec22 +2 520

Bean Sep unch 1347; Nov +1 1341 (1323-69); Nov22 -3 1250

  Meal Sep +1 355; Dec +2 358

  Oil Sep +3 6225; Dec -2 6158

Wheat Sep +26 753 (723-62); Dec +25 765; Jly +13 739

  KC Sep +28 739; MGE +15 928

Oats +9 469

Rice +9 1352

 

LC Aug +20 12315; Oct +92 12850; Dec +77 13395

FC Aug -7 15870; Oct +32 16562; Jan -10 16607

LH Aug +50 11012; Oct +62 8647; Dec +100 7990

Milk Aug -2 1612; Sep -30 1694

CBOT futures closed mostly higher in response to the midday USDA crop report which held bullish results for corn and wheat. Despite the supportive report, corn and soybean futures closed far below the day’s highs. September soybeans soared 43 cents upon the report’s release but fell back to unchanged.  This month’s yield estimates are based on surveys and satellite imagery. The September forecasts will include objective in-field sampling for the first time.

USDA put the U.S. corn yield at 174.6 bu/acre, lower than the trade expected. Lower production translates into the 2021/22 ending corn stocks forecast at 1.242 billion bushels which is slightly below expectations and up 125 million bushels from the current 2020/21 ending stocks estimate.

U.S. soybean yield at 50.0 bu/acre is below expectations and down 0.2 bu from 2020. The 2021/22 ending stocks estimate is still 155 million bushels due to a 25 million increase in beginning stocks and a 20 million decrease in both the crush and exports.

Wheat reports were bullish due to a decrease in 2021 yield and production, and a tightening of ending stocks in the U.S. and the World.  2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks are 217 million below the 2020/21 stocks.

Cattle futures closed mostly higher as the cash fed market was lightly traded again. USDA reported some sales at $123-126 live and $198 dressed. Cattle found support from strong beef prices, but poor weekly export sales limited the gains. Feeder cattle futures held up well considering the sharp rise in corn futures. Boxed beef values continued rising with Choice up 7.13 to 317.93 and Select up 2.32 at 290.31. Movement was a light 97 loads.

Lean hog futures closed moderately higher on early strength in the pork cutout. However, weekly pork export sales were a disappointing 14,600 MT. FOB Plant Pork ended down 4.59 at 119.37 after being up 3.40 in the morning report. This marks another day this week where strength in the morning turned to weakness in the afternoon. Ham value is down 12.34 to 78.30 and the butt dropped 11.46 to 110.30.

US$ +.1% 9300

Dow +15 35500 – new record high

SP +13 4461 – new record high

NAS +51 14816

Tran +33 14900

  VIX -.45 15.61

 

WTI -30 6872

Brent -27 7117

Gas -3 227

NG -15 391

HO unch 210

Eth unch 222

Gold +1 1751

Slvr -34 2315

 

2-yr +.004 0.225%

5-yr +.013 0.825%

10yr unch 1.359%

30yr -.001 2.003%

Kentucky 

Corn
   Yield – 183.0 bu/ac vs 184.0 bu/ac in 2020.
   Production – 265 million bu vs 254 million bu in 2020.

Soybean
   Yield – 54.0 bu/ac vs 55.0 bu/ac in 2020.
   Production – 105 million bu vs 101 million in 2020.

KY Tobacco

Burley
  Yield – 2000 lbs/ac vs 1950 lbs in 2020.
  Production – 74 million lbs vs 72.15 million in 2020.
   U.S. production = 86.9 million vs 84.7 million in 2020.

Dark Air-cured
  Yield – 2300 lbs/ac vs 2350 lbs in 2020.
  Production – 15.4 million lbs vs 14.3 million in 2020.
   U.S. production = 24.4 million vs 22.8 million in 2020.

Fire-cured
  Yield – 3000 lbs/ac vs 2500 lbs in 2020.
  Production – 27.3 million lbs vs 20.7 million in 2020.
  U.S. production = 47.6 million lbs vs 37.8 million in 2020.

FLUE-cured
U.S. production 304 million lbs vs 238 million in 2020.
 

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