CBOT futures closed sharply lower in reaction to the USDA Crop Report and WASDE supply-demand figures. USDA’s yield and carryout forecasts are larger than was expected by the trade. Additional pressure from China’s currency devaluation had markets leaning lower before the USDA reports.

CBOT futures crashed in the first 10 minutes after the reports came out and then bounced to close 8-11 cents off the lows. Corn traded to new LIFE OF CONTRACT LOWS which had been set in June. In less than two months, December Corn rallied over 90 cents, only to fall over 95 cents. Good risk management tools may have made this volatility easier to handle.

See Tobacco and Fruit estimates at end of email.

KY Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts are equal to record yields set in 2013.

KY Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts are equal to record yields set in 2013.

 

	U.S. Corn	KY Corn
2014 yield	171.0	158.0
2015 yield	168.8	170.0 Ties record yield of 2013
2014 Prod’n	14.215 Bil.	225.9 Mil.
2015 Prod’n	13.686 Bil.	221.0 Mil.

 

	U.S. Soybean	KY Soybean
2014 yield	47.8	48.0
2015 yield	46.9	50.0 Ties record yield of 2013
2014 Prod’n	3.969 Bil.	84.0 Mil.
2015 Prod’n	3.916 Bil.	92.0 Mil.

 

Live Cattle futures closed lower with a sharp sell-off heading into the 1:00 pm closing. Futures did manage to come back up some during the afternoon. Given the strength in boxed beef values, today’s sell-off may have been technical. Choice carcasses were up 3.09 at 244.02; Select up 0.65 at 235.45. Feeder Cattle futures were very volatile following the release of the Crop Report. The crash at the CBOT was considered bullish to Feeder Cattle, but then it wasn’t. Thus FC futures traded ranges of more than $3.00/cwt.

Lean Hog futures closed moderately higher, seemingly ignoring the CBOT and the Cattle market. This ended a 5-day run of lower futures. It also occurred as pork values fell. FOB Plant Pork ended down .69 at 9008.

US equity markets recovered from severe losses in place before Noon ET.

Corn Sep -19 357; Dec -19 368 (357-93) Bean Sep -62 918; Nov -61 910 (901-76) Meal -18 324 Oil -106 2910 Wheat Sep -15 492; Jly -15 512 (504-34) KC -13 475; MGE -10 509 Oats unch 227 Rice -8 1171

LC Aug -147 14870; Oct -255 14660; Feb -142 14850 FC Aug -20 21387; Oct -15 20802; Jan -55 20005 LH Aug +112 7785; Oct +102 6337; Dec +70 6010 Milk Aug unch 1644; Sep -5 1657

 

US$ -1% Dow unch 17402 SP +2 2086 NAS +8 5044 Tran -40 8276 VIX -.02 13.69

WTI +30 4338 Brent +54 4972 Gas +7 176 NG +8 292 HO +3 159 Eth -3 143 Gold +16 1123 Slvr +23 1551

2-yr -.012 0.665% 5-yr -.005 1.520% 10yr +.009 2.148% 30yr +.032 2.839%

 

U.S. Tobacco Production

Type	2014 area (acres)	2015 area	2014 yield (lbs)	2015 yield (lbs)	2014 Prod’n million	2015 Prod’n
Burley	101,500 KY – 76,000	84,000 KY – 62,000	2,100 KY-2150	1,872 KY- 1900	213.2 KY – 163.4	157.3 KY – 117.8
Fire-cured	18,630	17,450	3,175	3,247 lbs	59.1 million	56.7 million
Dark Air-cured	6,150	6,200	2,844	2,681	17,490 million	16,620 million
FLUE-cured					572.9 million	473.4 million

 

 

Fruit Production (data not available for Kentucky) United States peach production is forecast at 804,600 tons, down 6 percent from 2014.

United States apple production for the 2015 crop year is forecast at 10.2 billion pounds, down 11 percent from 2014.