Market Closes - August 12, 2013

Posted on Aug 12, 2013
USDA didn’t disappoint traders and producers waiting to see its crop production estimates.  The report is considered bullish for soybeans, friendly to corn and neutral for wheat.  Yield and acreage cuts for soybeans resulted in total production of 3.26 billion bushels, up 8 percent from 2012 and potentially the largest US crop on record. However, this was 85 million less than expected which tightened the 2013/14 ending stocks estimate to 220 million bushels.

The strong rally in soybean futures was aided by more export sales announcements and a drier forecast. Tonight’s 6-14 day maps from NWS show normal to below-normal rainfall for the Corn Belt.

Corn futures traded lower into the 11 am Crop Report, but immediately spiked 21 cents when USDA posted a yield estimate of only 154.4 bu/acre, over 3 bushels below trade expectations. Although the market didn’t hold onto those gains, the closing December price is only 4 cents off the high.  Technically, the DECEMBER chart has a bullish key reversal pattern.   Remember the large spec funds have a HUGE short corn position; but they are also long soybeans, so they had a mixed day.

18 Major US States Crop Condition/Progress: CORN Dented = 5 pct vs 39 pct year ago and 17 pct average Rated good/excellent = 64 pct vs 64 pct week ago Rated poor/very poor = 11 pct vs 11 pct week ago

SOYBEANS Set Pods = 58 pct vs 81 pct year ago and 68 pct average Rated good/excellent = 64 pct vs 64 pct week ago Rated poor/very poor = 9 pct vs 9 pct week ago

Live Cattle futures surged following last Friday’s $2/cwt jump in cash cattle prices. Boxed beef added to the support today.  Choice carcasses up 1.29 at 190.28; Select carcasses up 0.85 at 182.85/cwt.  Feeder cattle futures had limited losses despite the rally in feed costs.

Lean Hog futures rallied sharply today with the August moving to a new high ahead of Wednesday’s expiration.  The October contract surged and looks like it may challenge/break its “triple top” resistance mark at $87.00. October is working on reducing its discount to August. The FOB Plant pork cutout dropped 1.57 to 103.93/cwt with weakness in loins and picnics.

Corn Sep +6 472 (hi 480); Dec +11 464 (hi 469)

Bean Sep +33 1374 (hi 1374); Nov +43 1225 (hi 1228) Meal Sep +12 403 (hi 408); Dec +16 372 Oil +88 4238

Wheat Sep +1.5 635 (hi 645); Dec +2 649; JLY +5.5 670.5 KC Sep +3 700; MGE +5 737

Oats +3 362

Rice -17 1501

LC Aug +110 12360; Oct +52 12740; Feb +45 13092 FC Aug -35 15350; Oct -37 15962; Jan -2 15912 LH Aug +87 10140; Oct +122 8620; Dec +100 8305 Milk Aug -1 1808; Sep -15 1790

US$ +.3%

Dow -6 15420 SP -2 1689 NAS +10 3670 Tran +15 6495 VIX -.6 12.81 -4.5%

WTI +22 10619 Brent +80 10902 Gas unch 291 NG +7 330 HO +3 302 Eth +1 216

Gold +24 1336 Slvr +98 2138

2-yr +.02 0.32% 5-yr +.03 1.39% 10yr +.04 2.62% 30yr +.05 3.69%

Kentucky Crop Production Estimates – August 12, 2013  

Crop

Yield

2013 Production

CORN

154.0

231 million

 

SOYBEAN

44.0

69.96 million

 

WHEAT

75.0 (up 2.0 from July report

43.5 million

 

ALFALFA

3.30 TONS/ACRE

      660,000 TONS

ALL OTHER HAY

2.30 TONS/ACRE

4.945 MILLION TONS

 

 
BURLEY

1900 LBS/ACRE

148.2 MILLION LBS

 

FIRE-CURED

3500 LBS/ACRE

36.75 MILLION LBS

 

DARK,

AIR-CURED

2900 LBS/ACRE

11.60 MILLION LBS

 

 
U.S. grain production estimates were provided in the mid-day update.

Link to Crop Report page at USDA: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1046

Blue Grass Stockyards Cattle Auction Report for 08/12/2013 Receipts:  611 Last Monday:  997 Year Ago:  639

Compared to last week steer and heifer calves sold steady except 400-600 lbs 5.00 higher in a light test with very good demand.  Plain to average quality offering.  Yearling steers sold firm in a very light test with good demand.  Yearling heifers lightly tested.  Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold steady with good demand. Total supply included 13% slaughter cows, 06% slaughter bulls, 05% replacements and 76% feeders.  Feeder supply 36% steers, 29% bulls, 35% heifers with 51% of feeders weighing over 600 lbs.

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN BIDS Click Here

Tagged Post Topics Include: Economics, Market updates