CBOT futures closed sharply lower and at the day’s lows following bearish USDA reports showing larger-than-expected corn and soybean yields, along with growing World carryout forecasts. The selling pressure was aggressive by the speculative funds who were reportedly long all three major CBOT commodities. Some traders may be skeptical of today’s yield forecasts given the dry conditions in parts of the Corn Belt.

 

USDA forecasts for the U.S.:

Corn – 169.5 bu/acre; 14.2 billion bushels.  Both are 3^rd highest on record.

Soybean – 49.4 bu/acre; 4.38 billion bushels.  Harvested acreage is record high.

 

Kentucky:
Corn yield = 171.0 bu/acre.  215.5 million bushels.
Soybean yield = 52.0 bu/acre. 98.3 million bushels.  Record Highs!

 

KY Burley yield = 2000 lb/acre vs 1750 year ago.
    Production = 120 million lbs vs 107 million year ago.

Burley Belt
  Production = 160 million vs 140 million lbs year ago.

Fire-Cured:
KY yield = 3200 lb/acre and 32 million lbs vs 22 million
US yield = 3092 lb/acre and 55.3 million lbs vs 39.5 million last year.

Dark Air-cured:
KY yield = 2700 lb/acre and 13.5 million lbs vs 7.7 million year ago.
US yield = 2659 lb/acre and 16.7 million lbs vs 10.0 year ago.

HAY in KY:
Alfalfa: Yield of 3.00 tons/acre, down 0.60 from last year.
        Production 450,000 tons, down from 540,000 tons.

Other Hay: Yield and Production unchanged from 2016.
      2.40 tons/acre and 5.04 million tons.

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Cattle futures closed lower with sharper losses in the Live Cattle market due to follow-through selling off yesterday’s big losses. Traders are bearish on the cash cattle market and have the August LC contract around $6.00/cwt discount to cash trades. Choice carcasses down 1.03 at 200.63; Select down 0.42 at 196.19. 

Lean Hog futures closed narrowly mixed. Cash hog price was lower while FOB Plant Pork gained .11 to 95.17.

 

Corn Sep -14 358; Dec -14 372 (372-89)

Bean Sep -32 934; Nov -33 940 (940-88)

  Meal -11 297

 Oil -59 3360

Wheat Sep -17 442; July -15 516 (516-33)

   KC -15 448; MGE -22 712

Oats -5 266

Rice unch 1231

 

LC Aug -115 10885; Dec -127 10860; Feb -95 11055

FC Aug -35 14117; Oct -50 14047; Jan -20 13787

LH Aug +32 8445; Oct -27 6797; Dec -25 6270

Milk Aug -5 1638; Sep -10 1684
 

US$ -.1%

The following resulted from tensions with No. Korea.

Dow -205 21844

SP -36 2438

NAS -135 6217

Tran -116 9120

  VIX +4.64 15.75  +42%

 

WTI -110 4846

Brent -88 5182

Gas -2 160

NG +9 198

HO -2 163

Eth -4 155

Gold +13 1292

Slvr +26 1712

 

2-yr -.004 1.331%

5-yr -.021 1.776%

10yr -.037 2.205%

30yr -.036 2.782%

Kentucky Farm Bureau Minute video  - Click Here

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