Market Closes - April 19, 2021
Posted on Apr 19, 2021Corn May +6 592 (588-97); Jly +7 580; Dec +8 520 (515-22)
Bean May +16 1450 (1435-54); Jly +14 1436; Nov +10 1284 (1272-88)
Meal May +5 407 (402-09); Dec +4 395
Oil -6 5627
Wheat May unch 652; Jly -1 654 (652-63); Dec unch 662
KC +3 612; MGE unch 664
Oats unch 381
Rice -3 1284
LC Apr -50 12035; Aug -50 11865; Oct -25 12225
FC Apr -190 13772; Aug -177 15277; Oct -172 15555
LH May +317 10565; Jly +227 10197; Oct +255 8425
Milk Apr +3 1767; May +7 1911
Corn and soybeans closed strongly higher but mostly 4-5 cents below the highs. December corn and November soybeans made new contract highs. Tight 2020-21 carryouts with strong cash basis, a weaker U.S. dollar, and weather concerns for the U.S. (too cool) and Brazil (dry) were supportive. China’s corn futures market rallied overnight as data showed 5 times more corn was imported in March than a year earlier. The long corn position of over 400,000 contracts held by the spec funds is at a 10-year high, reportedly. Similarly, the funds have large longs in soybeans, meal and soybean oil. Wheat traders chose to ignore the freezing temperatures forecast for Kansas and nearby HRW areas, believe damage will be minimal. Tonight’s 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts indicate the below-normal temps will be pushed into IA/MN and the Dakotas. This will be good news for those getting the warmup. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
U.S Crop Progress
Corn is 8% planted vs 4% last week and 8% 5-yr avg.
KY@ 26% is 8 pts ahead of normal. MO is 9 pts behind.
Soybeans are 3% planted vs 2% 5-year avg.
Winter Wheat Condition:
53% good/excellent vs 53% week ago and 57% year ago.
17% poor/v.poor vs 17% week ago and 13% year ago.
Cattle futures closed lower but well off the morning lows, resulting in mid-range settlements. Today’s losses mark the 7th straight day of lower closes in Live Cattle. The downward pressure came from long liquidation as the cash fed market could not strengthen to support the higher futures. Unfortunately, the beef packers are able to keep most of the profits; packer margins are reportedly estimated at $500/head. Choice edged up .12 to 276.17 and Select was up .03 at 269.13 on lighter beef movement. Negotiated cattle trade was not established. Last week’s 5-market averages were $121.93/cwt live and $195.63/cwt dressed; both were near steady to the previous week.
Lean hog futures closed sharply higher, recouping most or more than last Friday’s losses. Last Thursday and Friday’s big losses left room for today’s rally. Strength came from data that showed China’s pork imports for March were up 22% from a year earlier. The Th/Fri sell-off was initiated by Thursday morning’s disappointing pork export sales report. FOB Plant Pork finished up 1.99 at 114.08, compared to 114.70 in the morning. Loin and rib values rose over 3%; belly value increased 2.5%.
US$ -.5% 91.08
Dow -123 34078
SP -22 4163
NAS -138 13915
Tran -121 14799
VIX +1.04 17.29
WTI +35 6354
Brent +38 6715
Gas unch 205
NG +6 274
HO unch 190
Eth +13 214
Gold -6 1773
Slvr -23 2587
2-yr -.002 0.161%
5-yr +.009 0.832%
10yr +.035 1.608%
30yr +.033 2.296%
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