As another growing season approaches, soybean producers are facing uncertainty in their bottom lines, as they continue to carry with them a farmer’s optimism.

American humorist Will Rogers once said, “The farmer has to be an optimist, or he wouldn’t still be a farmer.” Truer words have likely never been spoken about farm families. They continually face unknown obstacles each year in producing the necessary food, fuel, and fiber that everyone depends on.

This year will be no different as a planting season awaits, with many decisions having already been made connected to crop production for the 2026 season. As input costs continue to climb and crop prices continue on a bit of a roller coaster ride, “optimism” is about the only thing farmers can depend on for certain, and some of that may be in short supply depending on a number of factors.

From a positive perspective, grain production in Kentucky has steadily increased over the last two decades, with soybeans being a major commodity and part of continual crop rotations on most farms.

Jonathan Reynolds and Fred Sipes are producers in different regions of the state serving in soybean association leadership roles. Reynolds, from Hickman County, is the current Kentucky Soybean Association (KSA) president, and Secretary-Treasurer of the Kentucky Soybean Board (KSB), and Sipes, from Meade County, is the KSB chair, as well as an American Soybean Association (ASA) board member.

Both are hopeful for a good growing season and reasonable market conditions that would lead to profitability on the farm. However, the two recognize that they will need favorable weather conditions, improved commodity prices to offset input costs, and new opportunities both at home and abroad for their crops.

“First, we need more domestic demand,” Sipes said. “I know the export markets, such as those with China and other countries, are important, but we really need to find ways to use our products domestically, and I think biofuels, aviation fuels, and clean fuels are a route we can go and try to help use our soybeans here.”

One such way to increase domestic soybean use is through the expanded capacity for crushing. “Crushing” refers to the process of extracting meal and oil from the beans, according to information distributed by the USDA Economic Research Service. A recent rise in domestic soybean crushing has kept more of the product in the United States. In fact, the U.S. soybean crush is forecast to increase by nearly 3 percent to a record-high level of 2.49 billion bushels. With more soybean crushing facilities currently under construction, “crush is expected to account for 57 percent of U.S. soybean production, up more than 10 percentage points from 2017/18.” These facilities will also create opportunities for U.S. soybean farmers, processors, and consumers.

Reynolds said he thinks these industry shifts could positively impact producers in Kentucky.

“Within five years, we're going to have a drastic increase in our crush capacity, so the really big push on the soybean side is for biofuel policy, and then, of course, sustainable aviation fuel,” he said. “If that were to get actually mandated and we get that passed here in the US, specifically in Kentucky, we’ve got UPS, Amazon, and DHL in this area, and there could be a large demand for aviation fuel that could be fueled or could be fulfilled right here in this state with Kentucky soybeans.”

Regulatory hurdles

Much of the biofuel’s regulatory efforts rest in the hands of the federal government or Congress, but there has been a considerable amount of movement in specific areas. For instance, the Clean Fuel Production Credit, also known as the 45Z tax credit, was established for clean fuel production, which became available beginning January 1, 2025.

This income tax credit is for the domestic production of clean transportation fuel, which is divided into two broad categories: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and non-SAF transportation fuel, notes the Internal Revenue Service.

“The 45Z has caught traction, and it looks like it's moving in a positive way,” Sipes said. “I feel like many of our government leaders are listening, but it takes so long to get things done. But I hope it's moving in the right direction for the farmers.”

Taking it day by day

There are a lot of factors, besides biofuel outlooks or export market conditions, that go into planting decisions for farmers like Reynolds and Sipes, but at the end of the day it is about the bottom dollar.

“I think there are a lot of things to think about, whether it’s the ins and outs of trade discussions, export markets, or biofuels expansion, but those things aren’t necessarily top-of-mind every day when making our decisions,” Reynolds said. “When it comes down to it, we're looking at what the commodity prices are the day we're sitting down to do a crop budget or meeting with our banker. And in looking at what kind of crop year we may have, we ask ourselves, ‘Will we be able to make money at these prices?’ Those are things that influence a lot more decisions.”

Sipes said the decisions he makes, as all farmers do, is what needs to be done to keep the farm running and taking care of his family.

“We have a diverse farming operation with corn, soybeans, tobacco, and cattle, and I'm thankful we are so diversified,” he said. “But when you go to set budgets for the year, you have to support your family and make a living. You’ve got to make your farm payments, pay for the crop you're putting in the ground, and it is challenging right now.”

Reynolds, who farms 1,500 acres of row crops, including corn, soybeans, and canola in Hickman County, also understands the difficulties in making ends meet these days.

“Ultimately, everything that I've always been told in life is that farming is very cyclical and we're at the bottom of a cycle right now,” he said. “I know that it's easier said than done, but we've got to figure out a way to hold on until times are better. I think that's where, for all of us, we need to remember that these days, so that when days are better, we can put back, and pay off debt, so that these lows are not as hard.”

Both Reynolds and Sipes agree that “tightening up their bootstraps” right now is something that has to be done, but strong advocacy on behalf of the ag industry and prayers for a good crop year, stable markets, and continued support at all government levels will also be needed.

“With the amount of time and investment you have in a year's worth of work and knowing that it’s a good year if you just break even, it's a pretty hard pill to swallow,” Sipes said. “So, it is tough, but we pray for better days ahead.”